General Election Forecast: Kalutara District

Kalutara elects 10 members to the parliament. According to number.lk projections, SLPP will win the district with 6 seats. SJB has 2 seats in their bag with a very good chance of winning a 3rd. UNP and NMPP are essentially contesting for the remaining seat.

Aug 1, 2020

GENERAL ELECTION 2020 RESULT PREDICTIONS KALUTARA DISTRICT

Kalutara is the 5th most populated district in Sri Lanka, with 972,319 registered voters. The district currently elects 10 of the 225 members of the Sri Lankan Parliament Kalutara is one of four districts including Vanni, Kandy and Jaffna where Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) decided to contest alone with the Hand symbol due to a nomination dispute with SLPP.

In the past election, Kalutara is leaning towards SLPP direction. In the 2015 general election, SLFA was able to win 5 out of 10 seats from Kalutara. In 2010 SLFA won Kalutara by a landslide with 7 seats. JVP always had more than 5% support in Kalutara where they were able to win at least one seat going back 3 elections. in the recent presidential election, Gotabhaya Rajapaksha won the district comprehensively with 59.49 present (482,920 votes) of total votes.

Numbers.lk conducted a national online poll between 20th July to 27th of July of 2020. We got 1,844 responses overall and only 31 of them are from Kalutara district. Since 31 is not enough sample compare to the electorate of Kalutara we decide to use a combination of Kalutara and overall percentage swing of voters from one party to another from the presidential election to the general election to forecast the seat distribution of Kalutara district in 2020 General Election.

According to our projections, here are the final results of Kalutara district,

Key Takeaways:

SLPP will win 6 seats. SJB will win 2 seats with a high possibility of winning a 3rd. Either UNP or NMPP will grab the other seat. But UNP has the higher chance to win that seat according to our poll.
Our projection is 6,3,1,0 among SLPP, SJB, UNP, NMPP.
There is a high possibility either Palitha Thewarapperuma or Dr Nalinda Jayathissa will lose their seat in the next parliament.
Vidura Wickremanayake is leading the preferential vote race in SLPP.
Crossover Kumara Welgama is leading the preferential votes race in SJB. He is surprisingly in front of Ajith P Perera & Rajitha Senarathne.
Even though SLFP contest in the election as a separate party in Kalutara we have not found more than 1% support for them in the district.

.Do you agree with our projections? let up know in the comments section.