Numbers.lk Final Pre-Election Poll: AKD Leads by Double Digits; Sajith and Ranil in Statistical Tie
The final pre-election poll by numbers.lk reveals a commanding lead for Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) of the National People's Power (NPP) in the upcoming Sri Lankan presidential race. AKD has secured a significant 11% advantage over his closest rival, leaving both the opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe trailing by double digits.
According to the finding of Numbers.lk's final pre-election poll, Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) of the National People's Power (NPP) leads the Sri Lankan presidential election race with 40% support among likely voters. Sajith Premadasa follows with 29% support, while incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe has 25% support. Namal Rajapaksa, garners only 3% support among likely voters.
Numbers.lk: Presidential Election 2024 Pre-Election Poll 3 (Final) (4-Way): Voting Intentions of Likely Voters
Compared to the Numbers.lk's previous poll conducted last month, AKD led among adults with 43%, while Ranil Wickremesinghe had 28% support. Both AKD and Wickremesinghe have since seen a 3% decline among likely voters. In contrast, Sajith Premadasa has gained 7%, a surge that may be attributed to his recent endorsement by the Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) and the projected low voter turnout for the election.
Preference Vote Dynamics
With no candidate projected to secure more than 50% of the vote, the election is poised to be decided by second and third preferential votes. In this scenario, the top two candidates will remain, and the second and third preferences from eliminated candidates will be redistributed.
When voters were asked about their second preference:
Overall Sentiment: Over 60% indicated they do not intend to cast a second preference vote.
If Dissanayake and Premadasa Lead: Among voters whose first-choice candidates are eliminated, 41% still won't cast a second preference, 32% would choose Premadasa, and 10% would favor Dissanayake. In practical terms, for every 10 votes not initially for Premadasa or Dissanayake, Premadasa gains 3, and Dissanayake gains 1.
